The June 2018 HomeDex™  Report with May 2018 statistics 
is now available and I thought you would be interested to know…

 

“Just like last year at this time, prospective home buyers should expect a competitive housing market for the next several months. With payrolls trending upward and unemployment trending downward month after month in an extensive string of positive economic news, demand remains quite strong. Given the fact that gradually rising mortgage rates often infuse urgency to get into a new home before it costs more later, buyers need to remain watchful of new listings and make their offers quickly.

 

Closed Sales decreased 18.4 percent for Detached homes and 17.0 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales decreased 5.9 percent for Detached homes and 3.4 percent for Attached homes.

 

The Median Sales Price was up 4.0 percent to $728,000 for Detached homes and 10.0 percent to $480,000 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 7.1 percent for Detached homes and 19.0 percent for Attached homes. Supply increased 8.3 percent for Detached homes and 14.3 percent for Attached homes.

 

Although home sales may actually drop in year-over-year comparisons over the next few months, that has more to do with low inventory than a lack of buyer interest. As lower days on market and higher prices persist year after year, one might rationally expect a change in the outlook for residential real estate, yet the current situation has proven to be remarkably sustainable likely due to stronger fundamentals in home loan approvals than were in place a decade ago.”

 

Fun Fact: The highest North County sale for May 2018 was 2932 Camino del Mar in Del Mar, which sold for $16,500,000! Click Here to view listing details.

The May 2018 HomeDex™  Report with April 2018 statistics 
is now available and I thought you would be interested to know…

 

Many sellers and builders are in a good position for financial gains, as the economy continues to favor putting existing homes on the market and building new homes for sale. We are finally beginning to see some upward movement in new listings after at least two years of a positive outlook. There may not be massive increases in inventory from week to week, but a longer term trend toward more new listings would be a good sign. Low inventory should continue to create a competitive situation for buyers, causing price increases over the next several months.

Closed Sales decreased 13.2 percent for Detached homes and 16.8 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales decreased 2.4 percent for Detached homes and 8.4 percent for Attached homes.The Median Sales Price was up 9.4 percent to $730,000 for Detached homes and 12.8 percent to $479,500 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 18.8 percent for Detached homes but remained flat for Attached homes. Supply decreased 4.2 percent for Detached homes but increased 15.4 percent for Attached homes.

This winter and spring exhibited unseasonal weather patterns in much of the country. As the seasons change to something more palatable, wages and consumer spending are both up, on average, which should translate positively for the housing market. Being quick with an offer is still the rule of the day as the number of days a home stays on the market drops lower. If that wasn’t enough for buyers to mull over with each potential offer, being aware of pending mortgage rate increases is once again in fashion.

 

Fun Fact: The highest North County sale for April 2018 was 3002 Sandy Lane in Del Mar, which sold for $18,000,000! Click Here to view listing details.

 

*Click Here for full HomeDex™ report

The April 2018 HomeDex™  Report with March 2018 statistics 
is now available and I thought you would be interested to know…

 

“New residential real estate activity has been relatively slow in the first quarter of 2018, yet housing is proving its resiliency in a consistently improving economy. Some markets have had increases in signed contracts, but the vast majority of the nation continues to experience fewer closed sales and lower inventory compared to last year at this time. Despite there being fewer homes for sale, buyer demand has remained strong enough to keep prices on the rise, which should continue for the foreseeable future.

 

Closed Sales decreased 14.7 percent for Detached homes and 18.5 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales decreased 6.6 percent for Detached homes and 11.4 percent for Attached homes.

 

The Median Sales Price was up 9.9 percent to $714,400 for Detached homes and 2.6 percent to $436,000 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 17.6 percent for Detached homes but increased 4.5 percent for Attached homes. Supply decreased 9.1 percent for Detached homes and 7.7 percent for Attached homes.

 

The Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate by .25 percent in March, citing concerns about inflation. It is the sixth rate increase by the Fed since December 2015, and at least two more rate increases are expected this year. Borrowing money will be more expensive, particularly for home equity loans, credit cards and adjustable rate mortgages, but rising wages and a low national unemployment rate that has been at 4.1 percent for five months in a row would seem to indicate that we are prepared for this. And although mortgage rates have risen to their highest point in four years, they have been quite low for several years.”

 

Fun Fact: The highest North County sale for March 2018 was 2649 Ocean St. in Carlsbad, which sold for $11,500,000! Click Here to view listing details.

*Click Here for full HomeDex™ report

The March 2018 HomeDex™  Report with February 2018 statistics 
is now available and I thought you would be interested to know…

 

“The three most prominent national market trends for residential real estate are the ongoing lack of abundant inventory, the steadily upward movement of home prices and year-over-year declines in home sales. Sales declines are a natural result of there being fewer homes for sale, but higher prices often indicate higher demand leading to competitive bidding. Markets are poised for increased supply, so there is hope that more sellers will take advantage of what appears to be a ready and willing buyer base.

 

Closed Sales decreased 13.7 percent for Detached homes and 18.6 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales decreased 7.5 percent for Detached homes and 6.8 percent for Attached homes.

 

The Median Sales Price was up 11.6 percent to $700,000 for Detached homes and 9.6 percent to $455,000 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 20.5 percent for Detached homes and 11.1 percent for Attached homes. Supply decreased 15.0 percent for Detached homes and 9.1 percent for Attached homes.

 

In February, prevailing mortgage rates continued to rise. This has a notable impact on housing affordability and can leave consumers choosing between higher payments or lower-priced homes. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a 20 percent down payment that qualify for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose to its highest level since January 2014. A 4.5 or 4.6 percent rate might not seem high to those with extensive real estate experience, but it is newly high for many potential first-time home buyers. Upward rate pressure is likely to continue as long as the economy fares well.”

 

Fun Fact: The highest North County sale for February 2018 was 100 Stratford in Del Mar, which sold for $21,500,000! Click Here to view listing details.

 

*Click Here for full HomeDex™ report

The January 2018 HomeDex™  Report with December 2017 statistics 
is now available and I thought you would be interested to know…
“The number of homes for sale, days on market and months of supply were all down in year-over-year comparisons in a majority of the country for the entirety of 2017, as was housing affordability. And although total sales volumes were mixed, prices were consistently up in most markets. Buyers may not benefit from higher prices, but sellers do, and there should be more listing activity by more confident sellers in 2018. At least that would be the most viable prediction for an economic landscape pointing toward improved conditions for sellers.

Closed Sales decreased 15.9 percent for Detached homes and 8.4 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales decreased 4.2 percent for Detached homes but increased 6.0 percent for Attached homes.

 

The Median Sales Price was up 8.9 percent to $685,000 for Detached homes and 15.3 percent to $449,700 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 26.5 percent for Detached homes and 19.4 percent for Attached homes. Supply decreased 30.0 percent for Detached homes and 20.0 percent for Attached homes.

Unemployment rates have remained low throughout 2017, and wages have shown improvement, though not always to levels that match home price increases. Yet housing demand remained incredibly strong in 2017, even in the face of higher mortgage rates that are likely to increase further in 2018. Home building and selling professionals are both cautiously optimistic for the year ahead. Housing and economic indicators give reason for this optimism, with or without new federal tax legislation.”

Fun Fact: The highest North County sale for December 2017 was 16568 La Gracia in Rancho Santa Fe, which sold for $10,850,000! Click Here to view listing details.

*Click Here for full HomeDex™ report


The December 2017 HomeDex™ Report with November 2017 statistics
is now available and I thought you would be interested to know…
“The facts of residential real estate have remained consistent in 2017. In year- over-year comparisons, the number of homes for sale has been fewer in most locales, and homes have been selling in fewer days for higher prices. This hasn’t always been true, but it has been a common enough storyline to make it an overarching trend for the year.

Closed Sales decreased 16.9 percent for Detached homes and 20.7 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales decreased 1.9 percent for Detached homes but increased 18.5 percent for Attached homes.

The Median Sales Price was up 12.9 percent to $700,000 for Detached homes and 11.9 percent to $436,419 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 14.6 percent for Detached homes and 18.5 percent for Attached homes. Supply decreased 28.0 percent for Detached homes and 8.3 percent for Attached homes.

New tax legislation could have ramifications on housing. The White House believes that the tax reform bill will have a small impact on home prices, lowering them by less than 4 percent, and could conceivably boost homeownership. The National Association of REALTORS® has stated that eliminating the mortgage interest deduction could hurt housing, as the doubled standard deduction would reduce the desire to take out a mortgage and itemize the interest associated with it, thus reducing demand. This is a developing story.”

 

Fun Fact: the highest North County sale for November 2017 was 14771 Roxbury Terrace in Rancho Santa Fe, which sold for $5,800,000! Click Here to view listing.

 

*For full Homdex report Click Here


The November 2017 HomeDex™ Report with October 2017 statistics
is now available and I thought you would be interested to know…

 

“It has been several months since news cycles have touched upon housing in any sort of sensationalistic headline grab that was common during the boomand-bust atmosphere of a decade ago. During that tumult, heady price increases gave way to a Great Recession and foreclosure crisis. Then we entered into a period of healing and eventual recovery that we are still enjoying. For residential real estate in 2017, fewer headlines have meant mostly good news.

 

Closed Sales decreased 11.6 percent for Detached homes and 12.2 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales increased 5.8 percent for Detached homes but decreased 11.4 percent for Attached homes.

 

The Median Sales Price was up 4.6 percent to $680,000 for Detached homes and 2.1 percent to $413,500 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 5.3 percent for Detached homes and 21.9 percent for Attached homes. Supply decreased 28.6 percent for Detached homes and 7.1 percent for Attached homes.

 

Although inventory levels are low in many markets, there has largely been enough listing and building activity, or at least conversation about future activity, to keep prices from skyrocketing toward another bubble. Low affordability has started to become a recent topic of conversation and is definitely worth watching. But with a healthy economy, level of demand and national unemployment rate, sellers are going to be hard-pressed to lower prices.”

 

Fun Fact: the highest North County sale for October 2017 was 17501 Via de Fortuna in Rancho Santa Fe, which sold for $6,250,000! Click Here to view listing.

 

*For full Homdex report Click Here

The October 2017 HomeDex™ Report with September 2017 statistics
is now available and I thought you would be interested to know…

 

“Every market is unique, yet the national sentiment has given rise to the notion that housing markets are stalling. Although desirous buyers are out on an increasing number of showings, there remains a limited number of desirable listings. And although mortgage rates have remained enticingly low, home prices have reached unaffordable levels for many new entrants into the housing pool at exactly the same time that established owners are proving to be less interested in moving.

Closed Sales decreased 13.8 percent for Detached homes and 9.8 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales decreased 11.0 percent for Detached homes but increased 1.0 percent for Attached homes.

The Median Sales Price was up 7.0 percent to $679,000 for Detached homes and 11.1 percent to $439,000 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 10.8 percent for Detached homes and 14.8 percent for Attached homes. Supply decreased 30.0 percent for Detached homes and 18.8 percent for Attached homes.

 

Last year at this time, the national storyline was about how high demand was propping up sales and prices despite low inventory and months of supply. That has actually continued to be a familiar refrain for many months in 2017 and now for the past couple of years. But with the likes of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, different employment outlooks, disparate incomes, varying new construction expectations and potential housing policy shifts, regional differences are becoming more prevalent and pronounced.”

 

Fun Fact: the highest North County sale for September 2017 was 5219 El Mirlo in Rancho Santa Fe, which sold for $6,500,000! Click Here to view listing.

 

*For full Homdex Report Click Here

The September 2017 HomeDex™ Report with August 2017 statistics

 

“August tends to mark the waning of housing activity ahead of the school year. Not all buyers and sellers have children, but there are enough parents that do not want to uproot their children during the school year to historically create a natural market cooldown before any actual temperature change. Competition is expected to remain fierce for available listings. Savvy sellers and buyers know that deals can be made well into the school months, as household formations take on many shapes and sizes.

 

Closed Sales decreased 4.7 percent for Detached homes and 11.6 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales increased 0.9 percent for Detached homes but decreased 0.7 percent for Attached homes. The Median Sales Price was up 8.9 percent to $690,000 for Detached homes and 4.8 percent to $435,000 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 12.1 percent for Detached homes and 20.0 percent for Attached homes. Supply decreased 31.3 percent for Detached homes and 23.5 percent for Attached homes.

 

The prevailing trends lasted through summer. This was expected, since there have not been any major changes in the economy that would affect housing. Factors such as wage growth, unemployment and mortgage rates have all been stable. Every locality has its unique challenges, but the whole of residential real estate is in good shape. Recent manufacturing data is showing demand for housing construction materials and supplies, which may help lift the ongoing low inventory situation in 2018.”

 


The March 2017 HomeDex™ Report with February 2017 statistics

is now available and I thought you would be interested to know

“The start of the year ushered in a wave of good news about a hot stock market, higher wages and an active home sales environment. At the same time, housing prices have continued to rise, and the low inventory situation and affordability crunch has been particularly hard on first-time buyers struggling to get into the market. Nevertheless, buyer activity is easily outpacing seller activity in much of the country, culminating in relatively quick sales and low supply. Demand definitely remained strong this month. Closed Sales decreased 1.8 percent for Detached homes and 11.0 percent for Attached homes. Pending Sales increased 5.1 percent for Detached homes but decreased 4.3 percent for Attached homes. The Median Sales Price was up 9.6 percent to $630,000 for Detached homes and 12.2 percent to $415,000 for Attached homes. Days on Market decreased 18.8 percent for Detached homes and 18.2 percent for Attached homes. Supply decreased 30.8 percent for Detached homes and 37.5 percent for Attached homes. Unemployment has reached pre-recession levels, and Americans remain optimistic about finding quality employment. This matters because job growth and higher paychecks fuel home purchases. Unfortunately, that won’t matter for potential buyers if price appreciation outpaces income growth and if mortgage rates continue their upward trend. Sellers are getting a generous number of offers in this market. The worry for sellers then becomes that there will not be a generous number of homes to choose from when they become buyers.”


What Lies Ahead for 2017 Real Estate Market In North County San Diego

San Diego North County housing market has seen strong gains in the past few years, and going into 2017 many wonder if that will continue or if we have hit our peek.  Watch the video below as I explain three key influential factors that will shape the 2017 real estate market here in North County San Diego.


The November 2016 HomeDex™ Report with October 2016 statistics

is now available and I thought you would be interested to know

Happy November! I hope you are looking forward to a nice Thanksgiving holiday with the people that are most important in your life.

The October numbers are in for North County Real Estate, and October has proven to be an interesting month in terms of activity versus normal October or seasonal activity.  We are seeing the trend of inventory levels subside due to fewer new listings and strong, but fewer, sales. However, Median and Average Sales Prices are abnormally high for this time of year – October is breaking 12 month records in these areas.

October posted the highest Median Sales Price for detached homes in North County, tying with May and June, our typical “Seasonal Peek” months. That represents an 11+% increase in Median Sales Price from October last year and the 12th straight month of positive year over year increases.  Similarly, the Average Sales Price records are at the highest level all year – jumping a whopping 18.7% from October 2015 (Oct 2015 = $722K VS Oct 2016 = $856K) and continues the 9th straight month of increasing Average Price trend for North County Detached Homes.

The inventory levels in North County for Detached homes are at 2.6 Months, the lowest level since February 2016, a 16% decrease in Monthly Supply from October 2015.  The number of closed sales are continuing about a 6-month trend of slowing down (which is seasonably normal). Similarly, new listings are also down 5% from last October and continuing a 5-month trend of fewer listings since April 2016.

Since the end of October, the country went through a pretty controversial election and the financial market’s response to the outcome is taking shape.  Over the last week, there has been a major shift of investment funds out of bonds and into stocks, which have had a fundamental part (amongst a few other factors) in causing interest rates to increase around a half of a percent.  Experts anticipate this rate increase trend to continue through the spring as confidence flows into the stock market and the Fed initiates their next rate rake, which could come as early as next month.

What does this mean for anyone buying or selling real estate right now?

First, if you are in the process of buying a home, it may be in your best interest to lock your loan rate.  Surprises like higher payments are not something you want to experience in the middle of your transaction.

Second, it’s a bit early to tell how this all will play into the short and long term of our real estate market, but here is what we know:  We know the value and price of the respective homes today and, although rising, rates are lower now than expectations for the near future.  Higher rates can mean higher payments for buyers and with limited supply it may not make an impact on softening prices or curbing demand so waiting for the market to come down may not be a safe bet.  If you are selling a home there is a chance that rising interest rates impact affordability, adjusting prices downward to compensate where demand will support the price, even though inventory levels are extremely low.  The point is, even with uncertainty in the market, people’s lives must go on.  Set realistic expectations and react on the information we know to be true today.

Home prices and market activity displays solid signs of a healthy market and interest rates are still historically low.  There may be changes in the future, all of which we can handle, but right now, I believe is a great opportunity to take advantage of the market.

Fun Fact 1:  In October, the Highest Sale in North County was Oceanfront in Encinitas, at 532 Neptune, which closed at $11.1MM and only on the market 28 days.

Here is a link to the full Details and Photos in the MLS Click Here to View Listings

Congrats to listing agent / broker DeeDee Kirsh at Coldwell Banker.

Fun Fact 2:  The sale mentioned above was the highest sale in all of San Diego County in October

Fun Fact 3:  Inventory of Attached Homes for Sale for October (489) is just about half compared to October of 2014 (952).  Specifically, that is a 49% decrease in Inventory. Detached Homes Inventory for Sale is only down 27% compared to October 2014.

 Click here to view October HomeDex report